Written by Carl Anka
The Premier League returns today (Friday), bringing thrills, spills, refereeing controversy and, hopefully, some high-quality football.
As is tradition, our team of writers at The Athletic have created a comprehensive series of previews for 2024-25. Readers can also enjoy our most recent roundtable, where several of us made our big predictions for the nine-month, 380-game odyssey that begins this evening when Manchester United host Fulham.
But along with the considered analysis comes the return of our Bad Prediction Amnesty, home to footballing forecasts that are based more on expected vibes than expected goals.
Hello friends, the Premier League is returning on August 16, so it’s time for a Bad Take Amnesty.
You know the drill. You give me your most baseless, guttural prediction for 24-25. You get one re-do at the end of the Jan window. We look back at these at the season’s conclusion.
— Carl Anka (@Ankaman616) August 11, 2024
This is how it works: before a ball gets kicked in anger for a new season, you tell us your boldest, most instinctive prediction.
We’re looking for opinions that stem from the overconfident, guttural part of the footballing senses.
That part of your brain that engages when one team in a match have all of the momentum but miss an easy chance, and you just know they’re going to lose the game. That weird twinge you get when you spot a player walking onto the pitch during the opening weekend with a fresh haircut, and it suddenly dawns on you they’re going to have a stormer of a season.
The amnesty is also home to the “reverse momentum” theory, where a football occurrence seems so obvious that part of you wants to predict the opposite, just to see the reaction. (*Waves at Kylian Mbappe before predicting a dour season for Real Madrid*.)
Once the season ends, we look back at our predictions, laugh and realise how attuned our football senses are to the sport we love.
The 2022-23 edition of the amnesty correctly sensed Frank Lampard would not last the season as Everton’s manager, that Leicester City were in danger of getting relegated, and that Arsenal were going to put together a title challenge. However, it failed to jinx Erling Haaland during his first season in England.
The 2023-24 version knew we’d be in for a season of refereeing chaos thanks to some rule changes and that Newcastle United might be set for turbulence. It may have pushed things too far, though, by hoping Luton Town would beat the drop.
None of last season’s promoted teams avoided relegation — will Ipswich manage it this time? (Zac Goodwin/PA Images via Getty Images)
We received thousands of responses and predictions for this 2024-25 article.
Remember, the goal of the amnesty isn’t to be proved right in the end, it is to rid yourself of that chattering footballing thought before a single ball has been hoofed.
So here’s how the upcoming season will unfold, according to your nagging hunches.
No one will be able to take their eyes off Chelsea
Chelsea will go through three managers but will still finish in fourth
— Roberto Rojas (@RobertoRojas97) August 11, 2024
Chelsea under the co-ownership of Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital are disruptive, attempting an approach that hasn’t been tried too often in English football. If it yields success, they’ll be regarded as great innovators, showing the world that eight-year contracts for players to aid amortisation are a good idea, actually. If it doesn’t… then a lot of money has been spent and rival fans will enjoy their rubbernecking.
For those who enjoy playing Football Manager, or the career mode of the EA soccer games, the Chelsea squad makes for a fun project. It is a huge collection of talented individuals that a manager should be able to shape however they see fit. But they present a headache for those of you who prioritise neat rosters and are unsettled by Mauricio Pochettino’s departure in the summer after a single season.
Chelsea don’t get Europe but will be saved by the fact of the Conference League which gives Europa League.
— CFCDaily (@CFCDaily) August 12, 2024
In truth, there is no unified view of Chelsea for 2024-25. Our club reporters predicted a sixth-place finish for them in our season preview while their fans finished rank bottom in our Hope-0-Meter, with 71 per cent of survey participants more pessimistic than optimistic for the season ahead.
This is a club with a new manager, more than 40 senior players on the books, and a home kit with flames on it. They could finish as high as third without too many people batting an eyelid. They could also finish much lower than that with a different group of people crowing, “I told you so.”
GO DEEPER
How hopeful are the fans of all 20 Premier League clubs feeling about their 2024-25 chances?
Either way, Chelsea won’t be boring this season.
Cole Palmer will miss a penalty
— Tom Victor (@tomvictor) August 13, 2024
West Ham might be fun…?
“Have they had a good transfer window? Or have they just made five to eight signings?”
West Ham 2024-25 are the latest team to answer the call. More than £120million ($154m) has been spent this summer with a view of sprucing up the squad from the solid-if-sometimes-stale era under David Moyes.
Crysencio Summerville and Luis Guilherme should add strength and depth to a front four that was already one of the more exciting units in the league. The arrival of Niclas Fullkrug means the magic of the Big Man Summer carries on into the autumn. West Ham finally have an heir to Andy Carroll and someone to take some of the attacking burden off Michail Antonio.
West Ham break their striker signing curse and finish top 6.
— Penguinoftruth (@Penguinoftruth1) August 11, 2024
Fun wasn’t the most commonly used descriptor for Julen Lopetegui when he was at Wolverhampton Wanderers in the 2022-23 season, but the 57-year-old is a well-regarded coach who knows how to get a lot out of a little and how to help players make the jump from good to potentially great. The arrivals of Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Maximilian Kilman and Jean-Clair Todibo should also strengthen the defence and lower Lopetegui’s hesitancy levels when his side are playing away from home.
How much can Lopetegui improve West Ham? (Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images)
A curious run of early fixtures (West Ham will not leave London for a league match until November) means Lopetegui could build some early momentum. There are still question marks over how many games Lucas Paqueta will be available for, but there should be enough talent on paper to challenge for the Conference League place.
West Ham in the top 2 by January, Paqueta’s ban details it and they finish 5th
— Dylan Farrell (@19dylanfarrell) August 11, 2024
The England manager’s job will be an important domino for the season
Another summer of close but not quite saw Gareth Southgate exit stage right as England manager after almost eight years. Lee Carsley, manager of England Under-21s, was subsequently announced as the interim appointment for September’s Nations League matches against the Republic of Ireland and Finland. Everything looks straightforward, but there’s still a lot of noise about how potential FA movement could affect the Premier League.
Gareth Southgate is thought to have admirers within INEOS, new co-owners of Manchester United. While Southgate described talk of him replacing Erik ten Hag at United as “disrespectful”, our amnesty received more than one call tipping him to be the main figure in the Old Trafford dugout before the end of the season.
Southgate at Old Trafford with England — could he be a more regular fixture there soon? (Eddie Keogh – The FA/The FA via Getty Images)
Real-world industry opinion is split on whether Carlsey’s interim period is a mere formality before he gets the permanent nod. Alternatively, he may be a safe pair of hands before a more prestigious candidate can be found.
However, the amnesty presents a third theory:
Lee Carsley’s interim England managerial spell takes a twist when the FA have to battle a Premier League club mid-season for his permanent signature
— James ‘Trezeguet’ Truscott (@jgtrezeguet) August 11, 2024
Who comes in to replace Carsley after that? Well, how about…
Howe takes England job in a ‘jump before pushed’ situation after Newcastle (despite POTY contender Isak) are bad
— will hardy (@wiliamhardy) August 11, 2024
Former Newcastle United co-owner Amanda Staveley recently described their head coach Eddie Howe as an ‘11 out of 10 every day’ earlier this summer. Howe himself has said he has not thought about anything other than Newcastle this pre-season. The FA’s interest in him is known, but they might have a fight on their hands to secure the 46-year-old’s talents (and presumably those of his long-time No 2 Jason Tindall) before 2024-25 is complete.
The England job could start a minor managerial merry-go-round this season. It’s certainly something to keep tabs on in the months to come.
But maybe this season won’t have that many twists and turns
Can’t help but feel this is going to be a pretty predictable season so my bad take is that none of these bad takes come true
— Neel Shelat (@ShelatNeel) August 11, 2024
Manchester City have won the last four Premier League titles and look the sensible choice to be crowned champions once more next May. This season’s three promoted clubs all play a possession-focused style of football that might not translate very well to the top flight. Since the return of football after the first pandemic lockdown during Project Restart in June 2020, we have faced back-to-back-to-back condensed Premier League seasons, with players being asked to play more minutes than ever before.
That can take its toll. It can also result in the chaotic playground football we saw for much of last season… which also resulted in a league table where the richest clubs held firm towards the top while the less-monied sides drifted towards the bottom. The relegations of Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United made it the first campaign since 1997-98 where all three promoted clubs went straight back down; could that be a freak occurrence or the beginning of a trend as increased wealth disparity makes it harder for everyone to compete?
Towards the end of the 2021-22 season, Brighton’s then-manager Graham Potter offered the opinion that 70 per cent of the league table is decided before the games begin again each August, and viewed it as his job to work within the margins to find room for improvement. But with so many matches and so little time to think/train/rest between them, could this season be a nine-month journey where the teams with the biggest wage bills see the greatest success?
We certainly hope not. But it’s probably best to get that nagging thought out of the way before the football begins properly tonight.
And many, many more…
This is but a sampling of the wide array of predictions you have given us.
Joe Gomez who has not scored a single goal for Liverpool after 10 seasons, will score 4-5 this season.
— AD (@AmR_D18) August 11, 2024
A number of you believe 2024-25 might be the season where Brighton hit problems, while several more of you theorise that Oliver Glasner’s late-season revolution at Crystal Palace last time will take them up the table (keep an eye on the midfield partnership between Adam Wharton and Cheick Doucoure — a combination that saw no playing time in 2023-24 due to the latter’s Achilles injury)
One participant in our amnesty believes Leif Davis will have a great season for Ipswich Town, racking up more than 10 assists thanks to his rinse-and-repeat method of cutback crosses. More than one entrant believes Antony will have a decent season at Manchester United after he begins to use his right foot for something other than standing on. Once again, the amnesty has predicted a potential title challenge for Spurs, as well as a Golden Boot for their new signing Dominic Solanke).
All your predictions will be stored to look at again, with more knowledgeable eyes, in a few months’ time.
Arteta signs one of the pick-pockets as a part of the coaching team after being impressed by his commitment to the values and the club.
— robert (@rd151) August 11, 2024
Dear readers, the Premier League is back.
Use the comments section below to unleash your theories before a competitive ball has been kicked!
(Top photos: Getty Images)
Post expires at 6:18am on Saturday September 14th, 2024